From my Oklahoma City postcard collection…

This is where it began for me. If you know me at all, you know that flying was my first life.

In 1957 the National Air Show was held in Oklahoma City at Will Rogers Field. I clearly remember taking relatives to the airport before the show. A fighter was practicing for the show, broke the sound barrier and blew all the windows out of the terminal. That was impressive for a 9 year old kid! We went back the next week to the show and I was hooked. Little did I know my dreams would be fulfilled a dozen years later!

In the 1960’s this terminal was replaced with version 1.0 of what we have today and was named Will Rogers World Airport. Oklahoma City has the distinction of having the only airport using ‘world’ in it’s name. It’s also named after someone killed in a plane crash and that its’ name makes no reference to the actual location.

Home affordability took a slight hit this week after the Federal Reserve’s release of its August 10 meeting minutes.

The “Fed Minutes” is a lengthy, detailed recap of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, not unlike the minutes published after a corporate conference, or condo association gathering. The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting minutes 3 weeks after a FOMC get-together.

The minutes are lengthy, too.

At 6,181 words, August’s Fed Minutes is thick with data about the economy, its current threats, and its deeper strengths. The minutes also recount the conversations that, ultimately, shape our nation’s monetary policy.

It’s for this reason that mortgage rates are rising. Wall Street didn’t see much from the Fed that warranted otherwise.

Among the Fed’s observations from its minutes:

• On the economy : The recession was deeper than previously believed
• On jobs : Private employment is expanding slowly
• On housing : The market was “quite soft” in June

Now, none of this was considered “news”, per se. If anything, investors were expecting for harsher words from the Fed; a bleaker outlook for the economy. And, because they didn’t get it, monies moved to stocks and mortgage bonds lost.

That caused mortgage rates to rise.

The Fed meets 8 times annually. Its next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010. Until then, mortgage rates should remain low and home affordability should remain high. There will be ups-and-downs from day-to-day, but overall, the market is favorable.

According to the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 5 percent in June versus the month prior, and 4 percent from a year earlier.  It’s the 16th consecutive month in which Case-Shiller reported an increase in home values and the third straight month of outstanding results.

That said, homeowners and home buyers in Oklahoma City would do well to temper Case-Shiller enthusiasm. The June figures are issued on 60-day delay and, over the last 60 days, housing data has been lackluster at best.

• Existing Home Sales are down 27 percent
• New Home Sales are down 12 percent
• Homebuilder confidence is down

Stories like these highlight a key weakness of the Case-Shiller Index — it’s out of date as soon as it’s published. Because of this, the Case-Shiller Index relevance to everyday Americans is muted. People don’t buy homes in the “60 days ago” real estate market, after all.

June is ancient real estate history to buyers and sellers in Rose Creek.

However, the Case-Shiller Index does have its place. As the most widely-followed, private-sector housing tracker, the index is used to help make policy decisions and to shape Wall Street’s expectations of the economy. This means that a strong Case-Shiller reading can cause mortgage rates to rise, and a weak Case-Shiller reading can cause rates to fall.

Tuesday, mortgage rates fell.

From my Oklahoma City postcard collection…

This photo is definitely before my time! This would be Main Street looking east and appears to be taken in the early 1930’s. On the left is Street’s Department store which remained in Oklahoma City until the 1980’s or 1990’s. Kerr’s Department Store is on the right and I do remember going there as a small child.

The tall buildings in the background are the Ramsey Tower which became City Place and the First National Bank Building.

Mortgage rates are low right now but pinning them down this week could be a challenge. As Labor Day Weekend nears and Wall Streeters take their head-start on the holiday, trading volume will fall, which will cause mortgage rates in Oklahoma to get jumpy.

As mortgage rates change, so does the long-term cost of owning a home. Every 1/8 percent adjustment changes a household budget.

Meanwhile, the relationship between “vacation days” and mortgage rate volatility is an interesting one; based more in scarcity than market fundamentals.

Rates tend to get volatile near holidays because of two inter-related facts:

1. Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds
2. Mortgage-backed bonds can’t trade without a buyer and a seller at a specific price

So, as the week progresses and more traders leave for their respective “extended” 3-day weekends, there’s fewer buyers and sellers left on Wall Street to connect for a trade. As a result, mortgage bond prices move across larger gaps than on a “normal” day which, in turn, translates into faster, larger changes in rates.

This phenomenon can be exaggerated during periods of economic uncertainty — like what we’re in now — and, furthermore, there’s a bevy of important data set for release this week including the FOMC Minutes, inflation data, and August jobs figures.

In other words, rates would have been volatile without the vacation week. The presence of Labor Day just piles on.

Mortgage rates may rise this week, or they may fall. Either way, if you have a chance to lock something favorable and within your budget, consider doing it. Rates are at all-time lows and likely won’t last.

It was just one year ago today that the OKCHomeSellers Oklahoma City Real Estate Blog came online with its’ first post. Time flies when you’re having fun!

This marks the 270th post during the last year. I know I started out slow. That seems to be the thing with a blog. It just seems to get easier the more posts you write. I sure hope the posts get better also with experience.

A challenging year it’s been! Oklahoma City’s been in a decline. We’ve seen home sales decline. We’ve seen home prices decline. And on a positive note, we’ve seen interest rates decline.

We’ve seen appreciation too. Perhaps mostly the appreciation I have for the new friends and clients I’ve acquired over the last year. You have no idea how much I appreciate you. I’ve seen massive gains in the traffic to this website. According to my Google Analytics, nearly a 400% increase. Along with that, lots of new folks searching for, and hopefully finding, new homes here in the Oklahoma City metro.

I suppose in ‘blog years’ one year old means we’re really probably a teenager. But unlike the stereotypical teenager, I certainly don’t feel like I know it all. I know there’s more to learn. Hopefully as we go through the second year, we’ll to better and have a better report next year on our birthday.

Thank you all.

With Labor Day looming, the autumn and winter months aren’t far behind. It’s a good time to reflect on your home’s heating and cooling costs, and take steps to lower your energy bills. Finding air leaks may be a perfect first project.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, up to 30 percent can be cut from a home’s energy costs just by reducing drafts. For example, a 1/16-inch gap unsealed gap around a window is equivalent to leaving the window 3 inches open.

That’s a lot of wasted Oklahoma City air.

The good news is that air leaks are rather simple to identify, and simple to fix. The key is to know where to look. And, to make the job easier, the government offers a complete DIY Guide To Sealing and Insulating a home.

Some of the key tips include:

• Focus on the attic and basement, where most air is lost
• Locate problem areas on a chimney
• Check recessed lights which allow air flow between conditioned and unconditioned air

The government’s website also provides a 13-page PDF with detailed images, instructions, and recommendation to help you with the work.

However, if the job is beyond your skill set, be sure to call a qualified contractor. Sealing your home from air leaks will reduce your monthly energy bill and the money spent to pay a professional will be just a fraction of what you’ll save over time.

(Image courtesy: US Department of Energy)

From my Oklahoma City postcard collection…

Just east of the Ford Center at the entry to Bricktown is the Santa Fe Depot. This is a magnificent art deco building is from the late 30’s. It’s still used today for Amtrak’s Heartland Flyer. It has also been restored and used for events such as a wedding reception I attended there.

As a small child I remember going there to catch the train to Houston to visit my aunt. It was a bustling place back then, and of course seemed gigantic to me. The train stopped running sometime during the 60’s or 70’s and the Santa Fe Depot sat abandoned. I recall thinking during the 80’s and 90’s that this would have be a great place to open a Oklahoma City Hard Rock Cafe!

One of my hobbies is collecting historical postcards of Oklahoma City. I’ve wanted to include in the blog, images from my collection and perhaps add my own thoughts.

Today’s postcard is an artists rendering of North Robinson Street looking north from Sheridan. This is from the 1940’s. If you were the photographer here, the Cox Convention Center would be off your right shoulder and Myriad Gardens off your left. The building shown at the left is the Colcord Building, and the building on the right is now the Sheraton Century Center parking garage. This, to me, is one of the unfortunate effects of the urban renewal. We lost so many downtown treasures.

You can see the State Theater on the right. I still remember seeing movies at the State. The State Theater opened in 1937 and remained there until it was destroyed in the 1970’s. The State was one of the few theaters built to showcase Columbia Pictures.

Across the street, if you enlarge the picture, you can see the Liberty Theater. I subsequently became the Harber Theater from 1948 to 1953 when it became the Cooper Cinerama.

Finally the tall building in the back is the First National Bank Building.

I read an interesting post this morning by Jay Thompson, The Phoenix Real Estate Guy. He was asked how many Realtors were in Arizona and how many per-capita.

The answer he came up with surprised me somewhat. Arizona has over 43,000 licensed Realtors. With there population that works out to be 1 agent for every 153 people in the state. Wow, that’s a lot. In fact, out of the top 10 states of Realtor population, Arizona has the lowest per-capita.

This report naturally got me curious as to how Oklahoma would compare. Per the National Association of Realtors Monthly Membership Report of July 2010, Oklahoma has 9,084 Realtors. Our 2009 population estimate is 3,687,050. This works out to 406 per Realtor in Oklahoma.

So there you have it. If you’ve thought there are too many Realtors, Oklahoma is better off than most!

The Complete List

Photo credit: Flickr/nationallibrarynz